Calibration of sea ice drift forecasts using random forest algorithms

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Developing accurate sea ice drift forecasts is essential to support the decision-making of maritime end-users operating in Arctic. In this study, two calibration methods have been developed for improving 10 d from an operational prediction system (TOPAZ4). The are based on random forest models (supervised machine learning) which were trained using target variables either drifting buoy or synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) observations. Depending method, mean absolute error reduced, average, between 3.3 % and 8.0 direction 2.5 7.1 speed drift. Overall, algorithms with observations best performances when evaluated buoys as reference. However, there a large spatial variability these results, particularly poor predicting near Greenland Russian coastlines compared SAR

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: The Cryosphere

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1994-0424', '1994-0416']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3989-2021